The debate surrounding the future of global order and America's role in it is a complex and fascinating one. Personally, I believe that the current narrative, which suggests the demise of the liberal world order, is not only premature but also potentially dangerous. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy that could lead us down a path of uncertainty and instability.
The Myth of Demise
Many Americans, across the political spectrum, seem to have accepted the idea that the liberal world order, built on U.S.-led alliances and principles, is dead. However, this consensus is based on a flawed premise. While it's true that the order has faced challenges and criticism, especially during the Trump administration, it's far from buried. In fact, the very existence of this debate is a testament to its resilience.
A Necessary Remaking
The second point of consensus is that a fundamental remaking of this order is essential. I agree that the U.S. role in preserving the old order had its drawbacks and was not without fault. However, the solution is not to abandon it completely but to update and improve it. The next U.S. president should aim to sell a new vision of enlightened leadership, one that addresses the shortcomings of the past while preserving the stability and prosperity it has brought.
The Benefits of U.S. Leadership
What many critics overlook is the immense benefit the U.S.-led order has brought to the world. It has underpinned the most stable and prosperous period in history. From avoiding great-power wars to fostering global prosperity and advancing democracy, the U.S. has played a pivotal role. As the famous quote goes, 'a U.S.-led world order is probably the worst of all possible orders—except for all the others that have ever been tried.'
Silver Linings
The benefits are not just theoretical; they are tangible. The U.S.-led order has prevented the world from descending into chaos. It has kept sea lanes open, curbed nuclear proliferation, and promoted democracy. The economic growth and prosperity it has facilitated are unprecedented. The rise in global income has lifted billions out of poverty, and life expectancy has increased significantly. While critics may point to inequalities, the overall trajectory is one of progress.
Not Dead Yet
Despite the challenges, the U.S. still holds immense power and influence. Its economic growth, military might, and technological dominance are undeniable. The notion that the U.S. is no longer capable of global leadership is simply not supported by the facts. The U.S. still has the capacity and the resources to play a leading role, and it's in its own interest to do so.
The Risks of Withdrawal
The risks of a world without a strong U.S. commitment are significant. The cost of aggression would likely decrease, and the risk of major conflict would increase. We've seen this play out with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. A reduction in U.S. military power and security commitments could embolden other ambitious states. The closure of key waterways, for instance, would have devastating economic consequences, not just for the U.S. but for the entire global economy.
A Call to Action
Instead of giving up on the U.S.-led order, the next president should aim to reform it. This involves proposing a new bargain with allies, addressing legitimate concerns, and making alliances politically sustainable. It also means updating the alliance system to reflect the challenges of the 21st century, from great-power competition to climate change. The U.S. must demonstrate respect for rules, norms, and institutions, and address global economic imbalances.
Conclusion
The future of global order is not a foregone conclusion. It's up to the American people and their leaders to decide whether they want to continue leading and shaping the world or step back and risk the unknown. The benefits of U.S. leadership are clear, and the risks of withdrawal are significant. It's time to fix what's broken, not nix it altogether.
